China’s population falls for fourth consecutive year despite efforts to persuade couples to have more children
China’s population has fallen for the fourth consecutive year as official data show the total number of people in the country declined again in 2025, underscoring deep and persistent demographic challenges that government policies have so far failed to reverse. In the latest figures from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, the nation’s population dropped by about 3.39 million to roughly 1.405 billion people, marking the fourth straight annual fall in total population. Births in 2025 sank to around 7.92 million, a 17 percent drop from the prior year and the lowest number of births since official records began in 1949. At the same time, the number of deaths rose to 11.31 million, resulting in more deaths than births for the fourth year running and signalling that the natural population increase has turned negative.
The decline comes despite years of government efforts to encourage couples to have more children by relaxing the decades-long one-child policy first allowing two children, then three and introducing pronatalist incentives such as childcare subsidies, tax breaks and other financial supports. China has even integrated demographic concerns into wider economic policy, investing billions in subsidies and free pregnancy-related medical coverage, and promoting positive messages on marriage and childbearing.
Analysts say the continued drop is driven by structural social and economic factors that have proved far more powerful than state incentives. High housing and child-rearing costs, intense educational and career pressures, and shifting values among younger generations have discouraged marriage and family formation. Some couples postpone having children or choose to remain childless, while marriage registrations a key predictor of future births plunged sharply in recent years before showing only a modest rebound.
The demographic shift also reflects the lingering impact of the one-child policy, which for decades suppressed birthrates and reshaped China’s age distribution. With an ageing population nearly a quarter of citizens now over 60 and a shrinking pool of people of reproductive age, China faces growing economic and social pressures, including strains on pension and healthcare systems and a shrinking workforce.
Despite the scale and urgency of government pronatalist campaigns, the continued fall in population highlights the limits of policy levers in overcoming deep-rooted demographic and societal trends. China’s demographic trajectory now points to a shrinking population well into the coming decades, with long-term implications for its economy, social services, and global influence.
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