Nigeria Heat Death Warning: 31,400 Deaths Projected
Nigeria could record the world’s highest number of extra heat-related deaths during the current super El Niño, according to a new report from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab. The researchers project about 31,400 additional deaths in Nigeria between September 2026 and the end of February 2027.
Key findings
The Conversation, in an article by report authors Michael Greenstone and Tamma Carleton, says the study estimates about 451,000 extra heat deaths worldwide over the same period. It says Africa’s Sahel region is projected to be hit hardest.
The report names four countries as most affected. Nigeria is projected to have 31,400 extra deaths, Sudan 17,500, Niger 10,000 and Chad 8,000, according to AFP, as carried by Modern Ghana. The authors say Nigeria, with 237.5 million residents, is the country most likely to have the highest heat mortality under this El Niño.
AFP reports that the figures cover deaths from extreme heat alone, and come in addition to deaths from drought, wildfires and flooding linked to higher temperatures and shifting rainfall.
How the estimates were made
The authors say they combined seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts with peer-reviewed research on how temperature affects death rates in 24,378 regions. The estimates compare expected deaths with the average for the same months in 1996 to 2025.
Why Nigeria is exposed
The authors say poorer regions tend to record more heat deaths than richer ones facing similar temperatures, because they have fewer resources to protect people. They note that more than 60 per cent of Nigerians were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025, and that even homes with electricity face power cuts.
According to the authors, older people, young children and people with chronic health conditions face greater risk, and outdoor workers such as farmers who lack indoor cooling are in particular danger.
Background
Nigeria has seen deadly heat before. The New Humanitarian reports that at least 60 people died of heat stroke in Maiduguri in 2002. NPR reported in 2024 that a lethal West African heatwave, which scientists linked to human-caused climate change, was worsened by power shortages in Nigeria and Sierra Leone.
Quick timeline:
- 2002: Heatwave kills at least 60 people in Maiduguri, per The New Humanitarian.
- April 2024: West African heatwave hits the region, per NPR.
- September 23, 2026: Climate Impact Lab report is published, per AFP.
- February 2027: End of the projection window.
What happens next
Greenstone said, according to AFP, that the report shows decision-makers where emergency action can “save tens of thousands of lives.” The authors recommend early warning systems paired with heat action plans, cooling centres and hydration stations, health outreach to vulnerable people, and protections for outdoor workers during peak heat.
They also advise governments to prepare hospitals for more heatstroke cases by hiring extra staff and stocking supplies now. The sources reviewed do not include a response from the Nigerian government or the Nigerian Meteorological Agency.
About the Author
