Uba Sani Rejects Northern Backlash Narrative, Predicts Big Kaduna Win for Tinubu in 2027
Kaduna State Governor Uba Sani has dismissed growing claims of a northern backlash against President Bola Tinubu ahead of the 2027 presidential election, predicting instead that the president is positioned to dramatically improve his performance in the state, potentially securing between 70 and 80 per cent of the votes cast.
Speaking in an interview with Channels Television, Sani argued that the perception of the North turning hostile toward Tinubu was largely driven by political assumptions rather than any genuine assessment of the situation on the ground. He maintained that neither the North broadly nor Kaduna State specifically had turned against the president, stressing that the political mood in the region should not be judged solely by social media activity or statements from opposition politicians.
The governor’s prediction carries particular significance given Kaduna’s electoral history. The state was one of the major northern strongholds where former Vice President Atiku Abubakar defeated Tinubu in the 2023 presidential election, securing 554,360 votes against Tinubu’s 399,293, a margin of more than 155,000 votes. That outcome had fuelled speculation that the All Progressives Congress (APC) could struggle to hold the state in 2027, particularly amid internal political disagreements involving supporters of a former governor and the current administration.
Sani rejected that assessment, insisting the political dynamics in Kaduna had shifted considerably since 2023. He described the state’s electorate as among the most politically sophisticated in the North, arguing that residents expect concrete plans from politicians rather than unexplained promises. He attributed part of the APC’s weaker 2023 showing in southern Kaduna to the political alignment of influential local politicians who were then in opposition parties, noting that many of those figures have since moved into the APC, meaning the conditions that produced the earlier result could not simply repeat themselves.
As evidence of the administration’s strengthening standing in the state, Sani pointed to federal interventions including the establishment of a Federal University of Science and Technology in southern Kaduna and the development of a federal medical centre, while also crediting both Tinubu and his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, with contributing to the state’s development. He acknowledged that Kaduna still faces significant infrastructure deficits, noting his administration inherited a situation in which 12 local government areas had no completed kilometre of road, a condition he said naturally bred resentment and protest among residents. He said his government had responded by extending infrastructure projects to underserved parts of the state, arguing that frustration over poor infrastructure should not automatically be read as opposition to the APC or the president.
On the question of former governor Nasir El-Rufai, whose supporters have alleged political persecution amid tensions within the APC, Sani declined to be drawn into what he called personality-driven politics, saying he respected and valued El-Rufai but preferred to focus on strengthening the party rather than engaging with individual disagreements.
The governor also defended the Tinubu administration’s removal of the petrol subsidy, rejecting claims that the policy had failed to improve ordinary Nigerians’ welfare. He argued that problems such as financial exclusion and Nigeria’s large out-of-school population predated the current administration, citing data showing millions of Nigerians were already financially excluded before Tinubu took office.
Asked directly whether a storm was building against the president in the North, Sani responded firmly that it was not possible, predicting that Tinubu would win convincingly across the North-West, North-East and North-Central geopolitical zones. He argued that presidential elections could not be won through television appearances or social media campaigns concentrated in state capitals, insisting that serious contenders needed to establish grassroots presence across Nigeria’s thousands of political wards.
Sani’s comments come as the APC continues to navigate internal disagreements over its 2027 campaign structure, with reports of infighting surrounding a recently released list of campaign members, even as the party has indicated adjustments could still be made.
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